Closing Probability Calculator
Calculate deal close likelihood from 12 signals
Get a calibrated probability score and key factors affecting your close rate.
Powered by intelligence from 23,428+ SEC-registered RIA firms
The Problem This Solves
You're carrying a pipeline full of prospects, but you can't tell which ones are real and which are wishful thinking. When you forecast new AUM for the quarter, you're guessing — and that guess shapes whether you hire, market, or sit tight.
✦ You'll see a calibrated close probability on every active prospect and a revenue forecast you can actually plan against, plus the specific stage where your conversion lags practices your size.
Tool Details
How It Works
Calculates deal closing probability using a multi-factor model weighting eight deal stage signals: initial meeting completion, discovery depth, financial plan presented, referral source quality, AUM qualification, timeline urgency, competitive situation, and follow-up velocity. Each signal has a base weight derived from observed conversion patterns in financial advisory sales cycles. The composite probability is a weighted product normalized to 0–100. Pipeline revenue forecast multiplies closing probability by deal value across all active prospects. Bottleneck analysis compares your conversion rates against benchmarks for practices of similar size and archetype.
Data Sources
- •Multi-factor conversion probability model — 8 deal stage signals
- •Synseus aggregate conversion benchmark data by practice size
- •Financial advisory sales cycle research
Audit Parameters
- •Model: 8-signal weighted composite
- •Benchmark: Synseus aggregate by practice size
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